Everyone has a unique place where they tend to get their inspiration from. For some it is in the bath, for others it maybe walking the dog. ‘Ureka’ moments are precious and yet they are the creative solutions that allow us to offer real value.
Senior managers and interim managers are paid to be creative, they are not expected to be operational. And yet so many of us find ourselves going from one information download session (otherwise commonly known as meetings) to another without space between to reflect, and to process high quality inspirational thoughts and creative solutions.
Walking the dog is fine for one problem, but if you have attended five meetings in one day (or more), walking the dog may only solve one of them. As a result our meetings tend to get longer to allow us to think the issue through. The result being that they turn into inefficient brainstorming sessions, without the chance to mull over the the potential consequences of decisions taken.
Of course there are executives that have teams around them that prepare perfectly for meetings, that have already thought all the issues through and are just presenting to senior management in order to share their findings and to obtain approval. In my experience, however, these situations are rare.
Yesterday I went from giving one interview to another, with a two and a half hour investment pitch and an advertising campaign purchase meeting in-between. Decisions were made and the world is still turning but this is not ideal. I know it is not trendy to slow down but in this case I believe less is more.
If we are not taking the time out to contemplate potential opportunities and risks, then at least we should have members of our team doing so. The only question remaining is – ‘Do we trust them and their judgment sufficiently?’
Tip: if you drive home from work everyday with the radio on, or spend the time on the phone extending the day – perhaps once a week you should switch everything off and spend the time reflecting on conversations of the day (this is assuming you are good at multi-tasking and are driving along a boring motorway, not in a busy city).
I am off for my bath,
Harley
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Outside of your comfort zone?
Everyone has experienced a time when they stepped out of their comfort zone: perhaps turning a wrong corner in a foreign city, walking into unknown territory. The effect is immediate; heart rate increases, adrenaline runs high and suddenly all our sensory receptors are processing massive amounts of information, looking for creative exits. This is also true in business.
In the good times, we have a natural tendency to cruise into our comfort zones, we switch to ‘cruise control’ and make boardroom statements such as; “let’s stick to what we know”, “is this idea really our core business?”.
The week before last I wrote about utilizing resources and this blog leads on from there in as much as in difficult times we need creative solutions to complex issues. My personal view is that we must ensure that our teams are not staying in their comfort zones, they need to be stimulated into facing new challenges, rather than idle their hours contemplating internal politics and possible outcomes.
In recruitment, my message to our customers is not to study CV’s for new interim assignments by looking for exact matches. Exact matches are very likely to fail – simply because you will be recruiting someone into their own comfort zone. What is more, they are likely to pass their day driving you and your team mad by endlessly saying things like: “in my previous company we did it like this” or “in my previous company we did it like that”. They are likely to get bored too quickly and maintain a narrow vision of the solution. Exact matches should not be considered 'a safe bet'.
My advice is to give a clear brief of the problem you are trying to solve and describe the type of person you think you need to solve it. Look for a character match first and only then look for a knowledge fit. An applicant that is stepping into something new, that has the right emotional and intellectual capabilities, is likely to work far harder and to keep their eyes wide open, simply because they are outside their normal comfort zone. They are very likely to act cautiously but keep all their options open. They will be forced to adopt a creative approach and to look to solve the issue in innovative ways. What is more, they are more likely to take their new responsibilities very seriously, relying on all their resources, not just their own opinion. In my experience, even the fixed employees that surround them are less likely to feel threatened because the interim manager will not be continuously manifesting themselves as ‘experts’.
I do have a caveat however: There is a difference between stepping out of one’s comfort zone’ and drifting too far from the shore. But as long as you can judge the distance and make the necessary provisions – I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised by the results.
Times like these are very good to consider creative internal re-shuffles too.
Have a good week,
Harley.
In the good times, we have a natural tendency to cruise into our comfort zones, we switch to ‘cruise control’ and make boardroom statements such as; “let’s stick to what we know”, “is this idea really our core business?”.
The week before last I wrote about utilizing resources and this blog leads on from there in as much as in difficult times we need creative solutions to complex issues. My personal view is that we must ensure that our teams are not staying in their comfort zones, they need to be stimulated into facing new challenges, rather than idle their hours contemplating internal politics and possible outcomes.
In recruitment, my message to our customers is not to study CV’s for new interim assignments by looking for exact matches. Exact matches are very likely to fail – simply because you will be recruiting someone into their own comfort zone. What is more, they are likely to pass their day driving you and your team mad by endlessly saying things like: “in my previous company we did it like this” or “in my previous company we did it like that”. They are likely to get bored too quickly and maintain a narrow vision of the solution. Exact matches should not be considered 'a safe bet'.
My advice is to give a clear brief of the problem you are trying to solve and describe the type of person you think you need to solve it. Look for a character match first and only then look for a knowledge fit. An applicant that is stepping into something new, that has the right emotional and intellectual capabilities, is likely to work far harder and to keep their eyes wide open, simply because they are outside their normal comfort zone. They are very likely to act cautiously but keep all their options open. They will be forced to adopt a creative approach and to look to solve the issue in innovative ways. What is more, they are more likely to take their new responsibilities very seriously, relying on all their resources, not just their own opinion. In my experience, even the fixed employees that surround them are less likely to feel threatened because the interim manager will not be continuously manifesting themselves as ‘experts’.
I do have a caveat however: There is a difference between stepping out of one’s comfort zone’ and drifting too far from the shore. But as long as you can judge the distance and make the necessary provisions – I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised by the results.
Times like these are very good to consider creative internal re-shuffles too.
Have a good week,
Harley.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
The Missing Chapter
If you have read my book ‘Making a Difference’ you will know about my nine step approach to complex business problem solving. You will also know that I cover ‘soft' issues such as managing people, personal development, and decision making. In a meeting last week with a senior manager of the University of Antwerp Management School I was introduced to an absolutely fascinating book by Adam Kahane called ‘Solving Tough Problems’. If I am not being too egotistical, this book could be considered the missing chapter of my book.
Adam Kahane has worked on some of the toughest problems in the world; from mediating South Africa’s transition away from apartheid, to Colombia during the civil war, the collapse of Argentina, The Basque Country, Northern Ireland and much more. The techniques that Adam suggests are very radical to many, require serious reflection and careful thought as to how they can be brought effectively into the work place.
Being a Quaker, I am familiar with some of Adam’s techniques and I even use them in my daily business life. In my book, in the section on decision making, you will find parallels to Adam’s work but Adam’s experience takes us to a whole new level of conflict. He has written the book that I would like to have written – I recommend it to everyone, it is not long, it is easy to read and is cheaper than mine ;-)!
Solving Tough Problems is written by Adam Kahane and is published by Berrett-Koehler Publishers Inc.
Adam Kahane has worked on some of the toughest problems in the world; from mediating South Africa’s transition away from apartheid, to Colombia during the civil war, the collapse of Argentina, The Basque Country, Northern Ireland and much more. The techniques that Adam suggests are very radical to many, require serious reflection and careful thought as to how they can be brought effectively into the work place.
Being a Quaker, I am familiar with some of Adam’s techniques and I even use them in my daily business life. In my book, in the section on decision making, you will find parallels to Adam’s work but Adam’s experience takes us to a whole new level of conflict. He has written the book that I would like to have written – I recommend it to everyone, it is not long, it is easy to read and is cheaper than mine ;-)!
Solving Tough Problems is written by Adam Kahane and is published by Berrett-Koehler Publishers Inc.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
The two really good things about a recession
The advantage of being the ‘old man of the firm’ is that you’ve seen it all before. The only disadvantage is that you can fool yourself into believing that you have seen it all before. In my experience, each recession and economic crisis are unalike and therefore as with antibiotics, you will probably need a similar but different remedy to pull you out of what appears to be the same symptoms as earlier.
Back to the subject, two good things about a recession. The first good thing about a recession is that everyone that faces economic uncertainty is, sooner or later, forced to face a familiar word with a new definition: ‘Resourcefulness’.
Everyday in business someone mentions ‘resources’ (usually complaining that they do not have enough) but in times of serious economic downturn ‘Resourcefulness’ becomes the key to survival. Only the very poor in our society see no difference between good times and bad times, they have to be 100% resourceful all of the time, simply to survive.
If the key elements of resources are: People, Cash, Buildings, Machines (tools) and Infrastructure etc. then being resourceful obviously means making the most of what you have. But my tip is to make the most of what you don’t have. And I do not mean stealing! Let me explain…
Imagine you only have one sales person for a very big area. In times of economic crisis you will probably regret not having employed that extra person when times were good. Your one sales person makes on average 5 sales visits per day – but who to call on, who in these difficult times is still spending money? Of course she should have a good idea, but she is only one person in a very large area.
The resourceful company sales director thinks on their feet and looks for a solution. One trick I have used very effectively is to look to my suppliers for help. The photo copier sales person. Take them out for lunch, pay for the meal. The big copier companies train their sales teams very well. In recession times they only retain the best and because their world is so competitive, they tend to cover their geographical area better than anyone else. Their sales people know exactly who is buying who isn’t. Which company car parks are full with new cars and which aren’t. Tell your photocopier sales person about your company get them interested, give them your target profile and very soon you’ll be repaid with some very useful information. Of course it is best if you let your sales person have this idea so that they can take the credit – a lead they find is always followed up hotter than one of yours and it is they that will have to make friends with copier sales person in the long-run.
So being resourceful in everything we do is great because we kick out what is not working, find creative solutions to previously ignored in-efficiencies and generate new hope.
If being Resourceful is one of the great things about a recession the second is that (in my experience) recessions do not last forever and the companies that have been the most resourceful all the way through, come out the strongest afterwards.
Tip for the week, prepare a lecture on resourcefulness, inspire those around you to be resourceful, identify resources that you didn’t even know you had and begin to use them well.
Have a good week,
Back to the subject, two good things about a recession. The first good thing about a recession is that everyone that faces economic uncertainty is, sooner or later, forced to face a familiar word with a new definition: ‘Resourcefulness’.
Everyday in business someone mentions ‘resources’ (usually complaining that they do not have enough) but in times of serious economic downturn ‘Resourcefulness’ becomes the key to survival. Only the very poor in our society see no difference between good times and bad times, they have to be 100% resourceful all of the time, simply to survive.
If the key elements of resources are: People, Cash, Buildings, Machines (tools) and Infrastructure etc. then being resourceful obviously means making the most of what you have. But my tip is to make the most of what you don’t have. And I do not mean stealing! Let me explain…
Imagine you only have one sales person for a very big area. In times of economic crisis you will probably regret not having employed that extra person when times were good. Your one sales person makes on average 5 sales visits per day – but who to call on, who in these difficult times is still spending money? Of course she should have a good idea, but she is only one person in a very large area.
The resourceful company sales director thinks on their feet and looks for a solution. One trick I have used very effectively is to look to my suppliers for help. The photo copier sales person. Take them out for lunch, pay for the meal. The big copier companies train their sales teams very well. In recession times they only retain the best and because their world is so competitive, they tend to cover their geographical area better than anyone else. Their sales people know exactly who is buying who isn’t. Which company car parks are full with new cars and which aren’t. Tell your photocopier sales person about your company get them interested, give them your target profile and very soon you’ll be repaid with some very useful information. Of course it is best if you let your sales person have this idea so that they can take the credit – a lead they find is always followed up hotter than one of yours and it is they that will have to make friends with copier sales person in the long-run.
So being resourceful in everything we do is great because we kick out what is not working, find creative solutions to previously ignored in-efficiencies and generate new hope.
If being Resourceful is one of the great things about a recession the second is that (in my experience) recessions do not last forever and the companies that have been the most resourceful all the way through, come out the strongest afterwards.
Tip for the week, prepare a lecture on resourcefulness, inspire those around you to be resourceful, identify resources that you didn’t even know you had and begin to use them well.
Have a good week,
Monday, November 10, 2008
On line Groups – What is the point?
Last week I found myself with a couple of unexpected hours free and started to sign up to a few ‘LinkedIn’ groups. No doubt many of my contacts received a weekly update informing them of my joining Vlerick Alumni, just as I received notification that an ex-colleague called Eric has updated his profile by submitting a new photograph?!
I can see the point in groups, especially if their membership includes people who might be interesting to consult with. But what will keep them as members? Many are bound to unsubscribe simply due to the potential banality of their content. (It reminds me of the early 80’s when everyone seemed to be purchasing CB radios, the problem was the airwaves soon became filled with people who, having hooked up to an elaborate communication network, found themselves with absolutely nothing to contribute – but, however, contribute they did!) What a successful group needs is content and a raison d'être – I see that Belgium’s ‘Data News’ LinkedIn group, has no content at all – which is rather strange considering it was put together by publishers!
With the rapid rise of e-networking tools, it is for sure that there will be a backlash. I don’t know if you have come across Ecadamy or not but they offer a paying networking group called ‘BlackStar’ that costs 105EUR per month to subscribe to, now why on earth would anyone want to sign up to that?!
Groucho Marx once said: "I would never join any club that would accept me as a member. If we substitute club for LinkedIn Group then we have an interesting debate : (see what a bunch of psychologists can discuss about it, and join in the debate if you want? ;-) Link
End note: By the way I posted a question on the LinkedIn Vlerick Alumni group forum and must admit, found the response very satisfactory indeed – the only point was I didn’t realize anyone had responded until I found them by accident. I guess there must be a tag somewhere that needs activating?! Have a safe week,
Harley
I can see the point in groups, especially if their membership includes people who might be interesting to consult with. But what will keep them as members? Many are bound to unsubscribe simply due to the potential banality of their content. (It reminds me of the early 80’s when everyone seemed to be purchasing CB radios, the problem was the airwaves soon became filled with people who, having hooked up to an elaborate communication network, found themselves with absolutely nothing to contribute – but, however, contribute they did!) What a successful group needs is content and a raison d'être – I see that Belgium’s ‘Data News’ LinkedIn group, has no content at all – which is rather strange considering it was put together by publishers!
With the rapid rise of e-networking tools, it is for sure that there will be a backlash. I don’t know if you have come across Ecadamy or not but they offer a paying networking group called ‘BlackStar’ that costs 105EUR per month to subscribe to, now why on earth would anyone want to sign up to that?!
Groucho Marx once said: "I would never join any club that would accept me as a member. If we substitute club for LinkedIn Group then we have an interesting debate : (see what a bunch of psychologists can discuss about it, and join in the debate if you want? ;-) Link
End note: By the way I posted a question on the LinkedIn Vlerick Alumni group forum and must admit, found the response very satisfactory indeed – the only point was I didn’t realize anyone had responded until I found them by accident. I guess there must be a tag somewhere that needs activating?! Have a safe week,
Harley
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Listen to good advice – but don’t follow it…
You might find this piece of advice a bit strange, especially coming from me, perhaps some explanation is called for?
When I was younger, when people came to me for advice, I listened for a while and then told them what I thought. Sometimes my enquirers would smile and say encouraging words along the lines of “thanks that’s great advice, just what I needed to hear.” If I happened to meet my enquirer again sometime later, more often than not, it was pretty obvious that my advice had not worked.
If someone gives you advice and you find yourself saying “Wow, that’s so obvious, why hadn’t I thought of it before?” Then don’t trust the advice – it probably is too simple. Listen to it, play it over again in your head, test it, ask others what they think – but whatever you do, do not follow it blindly – your advisor can not possibly know the complexity that surrounds your issues, unless they know you better than you do?
The reasons we ask for advice are many fold. The next time you find yourself asking for advice, stop and ask yourself these two questions first: ‘Why am I asking this person for advice?’ And ‘Once I receive my answer how will it help me solve my problem?’.
Let’s consider five common reasons why we ask for advice:
1. Because we are too lazy to work it out for ourselves
2. Because we like the personal attention we receive
3. Because we think wise people can solve anything
4. Because we are too close to the issue to think and act rationally
5. Because we like to have confirmed what we already know
I often ask others for advice, mostly my wife:
“Does this jacket go with these trousers?”
“Do you find this blog too long?”
“Should I see a doctor about my back?”
“If I mentioned it to her, do you think she would understand?”
“Is it worth cutting the grass, I am sure it is going to rain?”
Ok, so my requests for advice are pretty crass but think about it, mostly we ask for advice in the hope that our advisor will tell us something that we want to hear – to reconfirm our own beliefs. So when we hear what we want to hear we like it even more when we consider our advisor to be as wise as can be.
If we truly desire advice to solve a problem, especially a business problem (which by their very nature are often complex), it is mostly because of reason number 4: Because we are too close to the issue to think and act rationally. In this case, it is most likely, that unless we brief our advisor for at least 200 hours or more, the chances are they will be guessing at a solution. That is why, if you have a serious problem, it really is best to go through at least the first four steps of my nine step methodology for solving problems, before asking someone outside for advice:
Step 1: What is the real problem?
(Understanding and defining the current situation – separating the symptoms from the root causes)
Step 2: How did I (or the business) get to where I am today?
(Looking at the past to understand how the current situation came about)
Step 3: Cash, Culture and Competence
(Assessing the resources at our disposal)
Step 4: What are my (or the business’) aspirations?
(Understanding our long term desires and/or the long term objectives of the business, to be sure any solution will be in line with them).
These four steps take some effort and talking them through with others who know us, can help - but asking for advice as what to do (Step 5 Decision Time) – is something best done on your own. However! Once you have made a decision, it always a very good idea to share it with others for their opinion, if the majority of those you speak with disagree with you, then think twice and ask yourself again – “why have I decided on this solution?” - before you act upon it (especially if our actions will impact on others).
Remember, there is a big difference for asking for advice when one is lost, than asking for advice to confirm where we are. A powerful leader has only one councellor (advisor) for each topic, but many colleagues with whom to debate. There is a difference.
If you’re looking for advice, my door is always open, have a good week ;-)
When I was younger, when people came to me for advice, I listened for a while and then told them what I thought. Sometimes my enquirers would smile and say encouraging words along the lines of “thanks that’s great advice, just what I needed to hear.” If I happened to meet my enquirer again sometime later, more often than not, it was pretty obvious that my advice had not worked.
If someone gives you advice and you find yourself saying “Wow, that’s so obvious, why hadn’t I thought of it before?” Then don’t trust the advice – it probably is too simple. Listen to it, play it over again in your head, test it, ask others what they think – but whatever you do, do not follow it blindly – your advisor can not possibly know the complexity that surrounds your issues, unless they know you better than you do?
The reasons we ask for advice are many fold. The next time you find yourself asking for advice, stop and ask yourself these two questions first: ‘Why am I asking this person for advice?’ And ‘Once I receive my answer how will it help me solve my problem?’.
Let’s consider five common reasons why we ask for advice:
1. Because we are too lazy to work it out for ourselves
2. Because we like the personal attention we receive
3. Because we think wise people can solve anything
4. Because we are too close to the issue to think and act rationally
5. Because we like to have confirmed what we already know
I often ask others for advice, mostly my wife:
“Does this jacket go with these trousers?”
“Do you find this blog too long?”
“Should I see a doctor about my back?”
“If I mentioned it to her, do you think she would understand?”
“Is it worth cutting the grass, I am sure it is going to rain?”
Ok, so my requests for advice are pretty crass but think about it, mostly we ask for advice in the hope that our advisor will tell us something that we want to hear – to reconfirm our own beliefs. So when we hear what we want to hear we like it even more when we consider our advisor to be as wise as can be.
If we truly desire advice to solve a problem, especially a business problem (which by their very nature are often complex), it is mostly because of reason number 4: Because we are too close to the issue to think and act rationally. In this case, it is most likely, that unless we brief our advisor for at least 200 hours or more, the chances are they will be guessing at a solution. That is why, if you have a serious problem, it really is best to go through at least the first four steps of my nine step methodology for solving problems, before asking someone outside for advice:
Step 1: What is the real problem?
(Understanding and defining the current situation – separating the symptoms from the root causes)
Step 2: How did I (or the business) get to where I am today?
(Looking at the past to understand how the current situation came about)
Step 3: Cash, Culture and Competence
(Assessing the resources at our disposal)
Step 4: What are my (or the business’) aspirations?
(Understanding our long term desires and/or the long term objectives of the business, to be sure any solution will be in line with them).
These four steps take some effort and talking them through with others who know us, can help - but asking for advice as what to do (Step 5 Decision Time) – is something best done on your own. However! Once you have made a decision, it always a very good idea to share it with others for their opinion, if the majority of those you speak with disagree with you, then think twice and ask yourself again – “why have I decided on this solution?” - before you act upon it (especially if our actions will impact on others).
Remember, there is a big difference for asking for advice when one is lost, than asking for advice to confirm where we are. A powerful leader has only one councellor (advisor) for each topic, but many colleagues with whom to debate. There is a difference.
If you’re looking for advice, my door is always open, have a good week ;-)
Thursday, October 23, 2008
“The end is nigh!”
When I was a teenager, working for my first summer holiday job in central London, there was an old man that used to walk up and down Oxford Street with a big placard with the words “The end is Nigh”. At 16 I laughed his prediction away, wondering what the scam was, what motivated him to make such a fool of himself.
However, 35 years later, with all the chaos that has hit the stock and financial markets, it is not surprising that among the thousands of articles one can read on the subject, there are many doom and gloom stories that sound very plausible: ‘Melt down’, ‘worse than the Wall Street crash’ and so forth. As I mentioned in my previous blog on the subject, ‘Crisis what Crisis?’ everyone seems to have an opinion, which is, of course, normal. But I am getting very concerned that many business people are missing the point entirely.
It is not important whether you believe everything will blow over within a few months or if the world's economy will not recover from this for a very long time. The important thing is that responsible business leaders must start to make serious contingency plans. Surviving is about adapting your strategy based upon realistic possibilities and not on blindly following what you think the outcome will be. A business is not something that should be gambled based solely upon what the CEO believes will happen.
Every business leader (regardless if they are running a small family business or a giant multi-national) has responsibilities towards their shareholders, employees, suppliers and customers – and these need to be taken very seriously indeed. Therefore I suggest the following:
DO NOT panic those around you BUT do:
1. Stop talking about how bad or ok things are going to be
2. Set up an analysis project – give it a name.
3. Agree at least three possible economic (short to medium term) scenarios from OK to complete disaster
4. Draw up a risk analysis for your business for each scenario
5. Adapt your current strategy plan for each scenario
6. Set clear economic/performance KPI’s (Key Performance Indicators) for each scenario that will clearly indicate when you need to begin implementing your strategy for each scenario
7. Have your project endorsed by your board, expert shareholders or advisory board – whichever is most suitable for your situation
What I am suggesting here is about anticipation and managing the situation as best you can. For example: imagine that you are in the retail business and you believe that revenues will start dropping (if they have not done so already) - at which point are you going to take action? When will you actually begin to look at alternative ways of shifting inventory, or closing down outlets and laying off staff?
Business people like to complain about politicians not doing enough forward thinking and planning – but to be honest I have the feeling that many business leaders are simply following a ‘lets wait and see’ scenario. By making clear plans and looking at the impact on the cash flow and credit liquidity etc. now, we will be able to make much better decisions later on.
I have been in situations like this before, but not ever as bad as it ‘appears’ to be right now. I know that when things get really bad, people start panicking and take bad and irrational decisions. In the quiet before the storm, we need to separate emotion from action and make plans for both our businesses and our families. And, if the storm missus us completely, then at least we can feel comfortable knowing that we had a contingency plan in place, had it been necessary.
Please do not misunderstand me. I am not suggesting going into minute detail and pulling your staff off their daily tasks to panic about things they have no control over. All I am saying is: if, for example, your sales team are currently putting all their energy in a direction that you think is not likely to be effective in three months time, then maybe it is better to divert them into a more profitable direction sooner rather than later?
If your radar is telling you there is likely to be an iceberg ahead, then you need to begin now to decide how best you business can steer around it, once it appears. For some it is already getting rather too late.
However, 35 years later, with all the chaos that has hit the stock and financial markets, it is not surprising that among the thousands of articles one can read on the subject, there are many doom and gloom stories that sound very plausible: ‘Melt down’, ‘worse than the Wall Street crash’ and so forth. As I mentioned in my previous blog on the subject, ‘Crisis what Crisis?’ everyone seems to have an opinion, which is, of course, normal. But I am getting very concerned that many business people are missing the point entirely.
It is not important whether you believe everything will blow over within a few months or if the world's economy will not recover from this for a very long time. The important thing is that responsible business leaders must start to make serious contingency plans. Surviving is about adapting your strategy based upon realistic possibilities and not on blindly following what you think the outcome will be. A business is not something that should be gambled based solely upon what the CEO believes will happen.
Every business leader (regardless if they are running a small family business or a giant multi-national) has responsibilities towards their shareholders, employees, suppliers and customers – and these need to be taken very seriously indeed. Therefore I suggest the following:
DO NOT panic those around you BUT do:
1. Stop talking about how bad or ok things are going to be
2. Set up an analysis project – give it a name.
3. Agree at least three possible economic (short to medium term) scenarios from OK to complete disaster
4. Draw up a risk analysis for your business for each scenario
5. Adapt your current strategy plan for each scenario
6. Set clear economic/performance KPI’s (Key Performance Indicators) for each scenario that will clearly indicate when you need to begin implementing your strategy for each scenario
7. Have your project endorsed by your board, expert shareholders or advisory board – whichever is most suitable for your situation
What I am suggesting here is about anticipation and managing the situation as best you can. For example: imagine that you are in the retail business and you believe that revenues will start dropping (if they have not done so already) - at which point are you going to take action? When will you actually begin to look at alternative ways of shifting inventory, or closing down outlets and laying off staff?
Business people like to complain about politicians not doing enough forward thinking and planning – but to be honest I have the feeling that many business leaders are simply following a ‘lets wait and see’ scenario. By making clear plans and looking at the impact on the cash flow and credit liquidity etc. now, we will be able to make much better decisions later on.
I have been in situations like this before, but not ever as bad as it ‘appears’ to be right now. I know that when things get really bad, people start panicking and take bad and irrational decisions. In the quiet before the storm, we need to separate emotion from action and make plans for both our businesses and our families. And, if the storm missus us completely, then at least we can feel comfortable knowing that we had a contingency plan in place, had it been necessary.
Please do not misunderstand me. I am not suggesting going into minute detail and pulling your staff off their daily tasks to panic about things they have no control over. All I am saying is: if, for example, your sales team are currently putting all their energy in a direction that you think is not likely to be effective in three months time, then maybe it is better to divert them into a more profitable direction sooner rather than later?
If your radar is telling you there is likely to be an iceberg ahead, then you need to begin now to decide how best you business can steer around it, once it appears. For some it is already getting rather too late.
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